Readiness
Generated 2026-09-13T20:04:43 · window 2026-05-16 to 2026-09-13
Check-in: drank yesterday: no, soreness 1/5, mood 3/5.
Volume forecast, per exercise
Upper chud body 1 expected total 5,681 kg +6%
| Lift | Last time | Expected next | Usual range | Lands in range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammer Curl (Dumbbell) | 396 kg | 383
kg -3% |
313.0 – 458.7 kg |
|
| Lat Pulldown (Cable) | 1,620 kg | 1,665
kg +3% |
1,475.8 – 1,826.3 kg |
|
| Lateral Raise (Dumbbell) | 202 kg | 195
kg -3% |
167.0 – 221.2 kg |
|
| Bench Press (Barbell) | 1,450 kg | 1,420
kg -2% |
1,156.5 – 1,798.2 kg |
|
| Triceps Rope Pushdown | 495 kg | 467
kg -6% |
386.2 – 567.6 kg |
|
| Iso-Lateral Row (Machine) | 1,172 kg | 1,551
kg +32% |
1,390.2 – 1,779.8 kg |
|
Day quality guess: 1/10 — no better than chance so far
Upper chud body 2 expected total 1,248 kg -6%
| Lift | Last time | Expected next | Usual range | Lands in range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seated Incline Curl (Dumbbell) | 288 kg | 240
kg -17% |
173.2 – 314.5 kg |
|
| Triceps Extension (Cable) | 425 kg | 350
kg -18% |
286.7 – 465.2 kg |
|
| Reverse Fly Single Arm (Cable) | 135 kg | 120
kg -11% |
85.6 – 141.8 kg |
|
| Incline Chest Press (Machine) | 480 kg | 538
kg +12% |
not enough history for a range | — |
Day quality guess: 3/10 — no better than chance so far
Leg expected total 18,328 kg +30%
| Lift | Last time | Expected next | Usual range | Lands in range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leg Extension (Machine) | 1,984 kg | 2,243
kg +13% |
1,772.0 – 2,933.0 kg |
|
| Calf Extension (Machine) | 2,304 kg | 3,268
kg +42% |
2,657.2 – 4,255.6 kg |
|
| Seated Leg Curl (Machine) | 1,956 kg | 2,279
kg +16% |
1,947.5 – 2,626.2 kg |
|
| Lying Leg Curl (Machine) | 1,035 kg | 1,045
kg +1% |
935.0 – 1,092.5 kg |
|
| Leg Press (Machine) | 6,800 kg | 9,493
kg +40% |
7,851.5 – 12,190.6 kg |
|
Day quality guess: 5/10 — no better than chance so far
Cardio 45min not enough history yet (0 logged so far)
How to read these numbers
Expected next is the total volume (weight × reps, summed across all working sets) your last few sessions say this exercise should land at next time, against last time's actual number, so the percentage is a direct answer to "how much more should I expect to do". Usual range is where sessions like those have actually landed, taken from your own past errors rather than from a bell curve, which is why it is lopsided: you creep up over time, so the room above is wider than the room below. Lands in range is how often that lift has come within 5% of its own estimate. A lift at 70% or better is worth treating as a real target; one down at 15% is telling you its numbers jump around too much to plan against, most often because set count or rep scheme varies more on that lift than the weight does.
Day quality is the honest weak spot. It tries to call whether today beats your recent form, and on your data it currently cannot: across 178 upper-body sessions no input available here (sleep, HRV, resting HR, steps, rest days, walking gait, time of day) correlates with it once long-term progression is taken out. Earlier versions of this panel reported 59-75% for it, but that was measuring the wrong thing: scored against a three-year average, almost any 2026 session looks "above average" simply because 2026 is stronger than 2023, and a model given nothing but a session's position in history scored 72% on that. Scored against your current form instead, it sits at chance, and it says so.
That is why the targets lead and the day-quality guess follows. Predicting the number is something this data genuinely supports; predicting the day is not, yet. Check-in answers (alcohol, caffeine, soreness, mood, fed or fasted, planned time) are still being collected against that second question, and will start to count only once there are enough answered days to test them properly, on the trend-free comparison rather than the one that flattered them.
Readiness today
What is driving the number
Each input as a z-score against your own baseline. The grey band is plus or minus half a standard deviation, the smallest change worth reacting to. Impact is that same z-score after its weight is applied, in points on the 0-100 score, renormalised for any input that has no data yet, so it says exactly how much of today's number that row is responsible for. Read the components before the score: when they disagree, the composite is hiding something.
| Input | z | Deviation | Reading | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRV (7-day mean) | 0.26 | within noise | 40% | +1.7 | |
| Resting HR (7-day mean) | 0.53 | above baseline | 25% | +2.2 | |
| Sleep duration (7-day mean) | -0.21 | within noise | 15% | -0.5 | |
| Load balance (acute vs chronic) | -1.54 | below baseline | 12% | -3.1 | |
| HRV stability (CV) | -2.00 | below baseline | 8% | -2.7 |
Today's readiness of 48 (normal) is mainly a function of load balance (acute vs chronic), currently costing roughly 3 points off the score. To improve it in the coming days: if this came from a hard spike, a couple of easier days brings it back; if training has instead dropped off, resuming normal volume closes it. Resting HR (7-day mean) is the biggest thing working in your favour, adding roughly 2 points. HRV stability (CV) is also below baseline and worth the same attention.
Where you sit against your own normal
| Measure | Now (7d) | Baseline | Noise band | CV | History | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart rate variability | 85.9 ms | 81.4 | ±8.8 | 21.6% | 16 | |
| Resting heart rate | 48 bpm | 51 | ±2 | 9.4% | 17 | |
| Sleep duration | 6.7 h | 7.1 | ±0.8 | 23.6% | 16 |
Your HRV coefficient of variation over the last 28 days is 21.6%, which reads as widening. A widening spread over a training block has been linked to maladaptation independently of where the average sits, so this is worth watching even when the mean looks fine.
Vitals
Body Battery
| Today's level | 18 |
| Avg overnight charge (14d) | 66 |
| Avg daytime drain (14d) | 67 |
Garmin's 0-100 energy-reserve gauge, combining stress, HRV and activity: charges mostly overnight, drains through the day, rising at +2.5/30d. Useful as your own short-term trend, not a validated clinical measure.
Stress
| Today's average | 34 | low |
| Today's peak | 95 |
Garmin's continuous 0-100 stress score, banded on its own published scale (0-25 rest, 26-50 low, 51-75 medium, 76-100 high), falling at -9.6/30d over the last 14 days.
Training load focus, this month
| Type | Your load | Garmin's target | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aerobic, low intensity | 147 | 69-163 | within target |
| Aerobic, high intensity | 0 | 102-196 | below target |
| Anaerobic | 123 | 0-93 | above target |
Monthly training load split by intensity type against Garmin's target ranges for your profile: a training-type balance check, distinct from the acute:chronic training-amount comparison under Readiness today. Proprietary model, not independently validated, so read the position as a nudge rather than a verdict.
Garmin's own label for this: "Aerobic High Shortage."
Training load
| Acute load (3-day half-life) | 16.3 |
| Chronic load (14-day half-life) | 9.2 |
| Ratio | 1.77 |
| Uncoupled difference | 7.1 |
Load is Banister TRIMP, which weights minutes by how much of your heart rate reserve they used, so hard minutes count for far more than easy ones. The last few days are a sharp step up from your recent normal. Treat the ratio sceptically: the acute figure is contained inside the chronic one, which inflates the correlation, and the widely repeated 0.8 to 1.3 safe range has not survived reanalysis. The uncoupled difference avoids that specific flaw.
Are you getting fitter
| Measure | Change per 30 days | Direction | 95% CI | Significance | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resting heart rate | -15.29 bpm/30d | improving | -28.38 to -2.21 | p=0.025 | 17 |
| Heart rate variability | +11.82 ms/30d | not significant | -51.22 to +74.86 | p=0.694 | 16 |
"Improving" or "regressing" only applies when the 95% confidence interval on the slope excludes zero. Otherwise the data cannot rule out a flat line, which over a window this short is the common case, not the exception, so it is labelled "not significant" rather than guessing a direction from a noisy point estimate.
Sleep7.1h avg
From Garmin's nightly sleep tracking, 16 nights in this window. Average 7.1 h, sleep score 76, stage mix 25% deep / 17% REM / 58% light of total sleep time.
| Night | Hours | Score | Deep | REM | Resp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 5.0 | 64 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 15.1 |
| 2026-09-12 | 7.8 | 92 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 14.6 |
| 2026-09-11 | 4.8 | 41 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 16.4 |
| 2026-09-10 | 7.5 | 84 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 14.7 |
| 2026-09-09 | 7.4 | 79 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 14.5 |
| 2026-09-08 | 6.8 | 83 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 14.9 |
| 2026-09-07 | 7.7 | 92 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 15.1 |
| 2026-09-06 | 9.4 | 89 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 15.0 |
| 2026-09-05 | 8.8 | 89 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 15.4 |
| 2026-09-04 | 6.2 | 55 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 16.1 |
| Measure | Value | Percentile | Reference | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleep duration | 7.1 h | not comparable in range | fair | |
| Respiratory rate | 15.3 breaths/min | not comparable typical resting range | no reference |
Recovery and heart rate
Heart rate recovery
No recovery curves captured yet. Heart rate recovery needs the watch to keep recording after you stop working. Add a three-minute cooldown lap and leave the timer running, or press lap rather than stop. Once a few sessions have a tail, this section fills in.
Beat-to-beat HRV
No beat-to-beat data found. Your watch's optical sensor records averaged heart rate, not individual beat intervals, so the real HRV indices and the DFA threshold estimate cannot be computed from it. Pair a chest strap that transmits R-R (HRM-Pro, HRM-Dual, Polar H10) for one ride and this section appears, with an aerobic threshold estimate from the beat series itself.
Lifting
Lifting sessions
Sets, reps and volume from Hevy (automatic, internal API); heart rate from the watch where a Garmin activity matched the same start time within 45 minutes.
Weekly tonnage across 5 weeks, oldest first.
| Session | Sets | Reps | Volume (kg) | Min | Avg / max HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leg 2026-09-13 | 15 | 177 | 15,027 | 60 | no watch data |
| Upper chud body 2 2026-09-12 | 18 | 209 | 1,830 | 65 | no watch data |
| Upper chud body 1 2026-09-09 | 19 | 193 | 4,303 | 59 | no watch data |
| Upper chud body 2 2026-09-05 | 18 | 193 | 1,474 | 67 | no watch data |
| Leg 2026-09-03 | 15 | 168 | 14,079 | 51 | no watch data |
| Upper chud body 1 2026-09-02 | 20 | 202 | 4,865 | 74 | no watch data |
| Pull 2026-07-26 | 14 | 162 | 3,791 | 52 | no watch data |
| Push 2026-07-22 | 18 | 195 | 3,236 | 60 | no watch data |
| Pull 2026-07-21 | 15 | 167 | 4,184 | 50 | no watch data |
| Pull 2026-06-07 | 10 | 114 | 4,200 | 39 | no watch data |
| Upper chud body 2026-06-05 | 15 | 165 | 4,302 | 55 | no watch data |
| Upper chud body 2026-05-23 | 24 | 281 | 6,536 | 69 | no watch data |
Sessions showing no watch data were logged without the watch recording, and still count toward weekly volume.
Weekly set volume by region
| Region | Sets/week | Total volume (kg) |
|---|---|---|
| Upper | 34.2 | 38,722 |
| Lower | 6.0 | 29,106 |
Weekly set count per muscle group is the volume landmark most closely tied to growth, with a graded dose-response up to roughly ten or more sets per muscle per week (Schoenfeld, Ogborn & Krieger, 2017). The upper and lower split here is keyword matching on exercise names, so treat it as approximate. For upper-body mass specifically, this table and the tonnage chart predict progress far better than anything on the heart rate panels above: HRV tells you whether your whole system recovered, not whether a given muscle is ready to be loaded again.
Other lifting sessions (not logged in Hevy)
| Session | Sets | Reps | Volume (kg) | Median rest | Mean HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strength 2026-09-13 | 1 | 5 | — | — | 53% |
| Strength 2026-09-12 | 1 | 18 | — | — | 48% |
| Strength 2026-09-09 | 1 | 7 | — | — | 56% |
| Strength 2026-09-05 | 1 | 4 | — | — | 55% |
| Strength 2026-09-03 | 1 | 7 | — | — | 52% |
| Strength 2026-09-02 | 4 | 34 | 680 | 467 | 56% |
These are strength sessions the watch detected that have no matching Hevy log, so sets and reps here are Garmin's wrist-motion guess rather than what was actually on the bar. Be honest about what heart rate can and cannot tell you too: the readiness metrics above were developed on endurance athletes, and HRV reflects whether your whole system has recovered, not whether a specific muscle group is ready to be loaded again.
Progress3 of 4 changes significant
Each row splits that measure's own logged history into an earlier and a more recent half and runs a proper significance test (Welch's t-test, which does not assume equal variance between the two halves) on the difference, rather than comparing two averages and guessing whether the gap is real. "Not significant" does not mean nothing changed; it means the data so far cannot rule out that it didn't. Weight, body fat and lean mass are shown without a colour judgement either way, since which direction counts as progress depends on your goal, not on the number itself.
Lifting volume per session (kg), earlier vs recent half of history
| Measure | Earlier avg | Recent avg | Change | Result | p | n (before+after) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leg 2023-09-13 to 2025-02-08 vs 2025-02-12 to 2026-09-13 | 11,869.1 | 10,777.5 | -9% | not significant | p=0.298 | 29+30 |
| Push (all-time) 2023-09-11 to 2024-09-09 vs 2024-09-16 to 2026-07-22 | 7,517.7 | 9,251.0 | 23% | significant change | p<0.001 | 44+45 |
| Pull (all-time) 2023-09-12 to 2024-10-12 vs 2024-10-15 to 2026-07-26 | 5,747.0 | 7,710.5 | 34% | significant change | p<0.001 | 48+48 |
| Upper body, all variants 2023-09-11 to 2024-10-07 vs 2024-10-08 to 2026-09-12 | 6,814.3 | 7,933.0 | 16% | significant change | p<0.001 | 97+97 |
Volume by time of day, whole history
| Type | Morning (before 12:00) | Midday (12:00-16:00) | Afternoon (16:00-19:00) | Evening (19:00 or later) | Best window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leg | 13,536 (+20%, n=14) | 10,304 (-9%, n=19) | 10,500 (-7%, n=21) | 12,350 (+9%, n=5) | Morning (before 12:00) (significant, p=0.013) |
| Push (all-time) | 8,863 (+6%, n=21) | 7,150 (-15%, n=29) | 8,492 (+1%, n=32) | 11,690 (+39%, n=7) | Evening (19:00 or later) (significant, p<0.001) |
| Pull (all-time) | 6,548 (-3%, n=21) | 5,414 (-20%, n=39) | 8,138 (+21%, n=31) | 9,003 (+34%, n=5) | Evening (19:00 or later) (significant, p<0.001) |
| Upper body, all variants | 7,361 (-0%, n=45) | 6,115 (-17%, n=71) | 8,155 (+11%, n=66) | 10,571 (+43%, n=12) | Evening (19:00 or later) (significant, p<0.001) |
Average volume per session in each time window, with the percentage above or below that type's overall average and how many sessions fall in the window. "Best window" only names one when it beats every other window combined by a real margin (Welch's t-test), not just whichever bin happens to have the highest of several noisy averages; a session type shown here without a named best window has not shown a real time-of-day effect yet.
How you compare
Placement against reference populations for age 19, 190 cm, 85 kg. The confidence column is doing real work: only some of these measures have normative data collected the same way yours was. Two have none that applies, and they are listed separately rather than given a number that would look just as authoritative as the rest.
Cardiorespiratory
| Measure | Value | Percentile | Rank | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resting heart rate | 48.0 bpm | 98th | fair |
Body
| Measure | Value | Percentile | Rank | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Height | 190.0 cm | 81st | solid | |
| BMI | 23.5 kg/m² | not comparable | no reference |
Where a percentile would mislead
| Measure | Value | Percentile | Reference | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overnight HRV | 85.9 ms | not comparable | no reference |
- Overnight HRV: Overnight averaging is not comparable to short supine recordings, and between-person HRV differences are mostly constitutional. Use your own baseline instead.
Data qualityall endpoints OK
Sources
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